{"id":1004032756,"date":"2011-10-04T03:09:42","date_gmt":"2011-10-04T11:09:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004032756"},"modified":"2020-04-07T04:26:58","modified_gmt":"2020-04-07T12:26:58","slug":"dla-piper-survey-70-percent-stay-bearish-for-the-upcoming-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/dla-piper-survey-70-percent-stay-bearish-for-the-upcoming-year\/","title":{"rendered":"DLA Piper Survey: 70 Percent Stay Bearish for the Upcoming Year"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>October 4, 2011<\/strong><br \/>\n<em>By Nicholas Ziegler, News Editor<\/em><br \/>\n<a class=\"highslide\" onclick=\"return vz.expand(this)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2011\/10\/100411-DLA-Piper-Survey.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"1004032757\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/dla-piper-survey-70-percent-stay-bearish-for-the-upcoming-year\/100411-dla-piper-survey\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2011\/10\/100411-DLA-Piper-Survey.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"510,305\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"100411 &#8211; DLA Piper Survey\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2011\/10\/100411-DLA-Piper-Survey.jpg?w=510\" src=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2011\/10\/100411-DLA-Piper-Survey.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"100411 - DLA Piper Survey\" width=\"300\" height=\"179\" class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-1004032757\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2011\/10\/100411-DLA-Piper-Survey.jpg 510w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2011\/10\/100411-DLA-Piper-Survey.jpg?resize=300,179 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s an old saying: If all the world\u2019s economists were put end-to-end, they\u2019d never reach a conclusion. While that\u2019s usually the case, after the results of DLA Piper\u2019s fifth State of the Market Survey, many of the top executives within the real estate industry \u2013 CEOs, CFOs, COOs and other senior positions \u2013 at least share the same bearish outlook.<\/p>\n<p>The results of the survey, being released today at the international law firm\u2019s 10th global real estate summit in Chicago, are somewhat unified. A full 70 percent \u2013 nearly 200 of 280 respondents \u2013 are bearish in their 12-month outlook for both the U.S. and the global financial markets. It\u2019s not hard to see why, after we\u2019ve weathered solvency concerns in in Europe, a gridlock in Washington,  D.C., under the gloom of a budget impasse and continued low employment numbers, why many market professionals might not have the most rose-colored outlook.<\/p>\n<p>Nearly 44 percent those bearish 197 respondents saw the economy\u2019s main problem as jobs, or, more specifically, the lack of jobs. \u201cThe market is waiting and watching to see where the volatility shakes out,\u201d one perspective stated. \u201cThis is a more difficult time in predicting the future than 2008 because it could go either way.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>And the DLA Piper survey from that same year \u2013 \u201cby coincidence, right at the same time as the Lehman Brothers collapse,\u201d Jay Epstien, chair of the U.S. practice for DLA, said \u2013 was even more glum, with 90 percent of respondents that year claiming the economy was heading in a bad direction. Turns out they were right, but where does the bottom lie?<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe results were a bit more pessimistic than I would have estimated,\u201d Epstien told <em>Commercial Property Executive<\/em>. \u201cI think they were influenced by late August and early September. If it went out in July, I think it would have been 50-50 [bearish to bullish].\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The market certainly took a negative turn towards the end of the summer, whereas previously it has been coasting towards a recovery with low interest rates and pockets of strong real estate markets, most notably in New York City and Washington, D.C. But, as those bearish respondents who cited \u201clack of jobs\u201d as the main problem, employment numbers bring uncertainty into the market.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhile I don\u2019t think one jobs report can tell the whole picture,\u201d Epstien said, \u201cbut jobs are a major part of why we sit where we are. If we continue in a jobless recovery, that slows the ability of real estate markets to get a sense of normalcy.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>That normalcy is going to play a major role in moving forward. If the commercial real estate market is self-correcting enough and, if the 32 of 83 respondents \u2013 nearly 39 percent \u2013 who are confident in a bullish outlook are correct, we\u2019re going to be looking at a good number of investment opportunities caused by that market correction.<\/p>\n<p>But many respondents also see little action ahead, either in terms of interest-rate changes or in cap-rate fluctuation, because 74 percent and 67 percent, respectively, saw \u201cno significant change\u201d in those metrics.<\/p>\n<p>Another significant agreement between the survey takers was on the topic of international markets. For the second survey in a row, the top three countries most attractive to foreign investment were, from positions one to three, Brazil, China and India. \u201cBrazil coming out on top is a result of everything we\u2019ve seen in the last 12 months,\u201d Epstien said. \u201cIt\u2019s hosting the World Cup [in 2014] and the Olympics [in 2016]. It\u2019s an economy that is very strong and it\u2019s a country that, to people in the States, appears to be very stable.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Respondents were also aware of the fast trajectory of the CMBS market in the beginning of 2011. By the end of June, there had been more than $20 billion pumped through CMBS lenders and the sector looked to be gaining steam. \u201cBut then the market adjusted,\u201d Epstien said. \u201cNow, people are thinking that CMBS might not be as strong,\u201d he said of the survey\u2019s results: 47.5 percent of respondents think CMBS will do between $25 and $30 billion by year\u2019s end, and 45.5 percent think the volume will reach between $30 and $40 billion.<\/p>\n<p>To read more on the DLA Piper conference in Chicago, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dlapiperresummit.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">visit the Global Conference Summit website<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The results of DLA Piper&#8217;s fifth State of the Market Survey showed that 70 percent of the top executives within the real estate industry &#8212; CEOs, CFOs, COOs and other senior positions &#8212; are bearish overall on the economy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1269,"featured_media":1004032757,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21808,21825,37753,16,21742],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1004032756","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-finance","category-research-center-finance","category-international","category-latest"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - 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