![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2011\/05\/morrissey1.jpg\" "\\"morrissey\\"")
<\/a>Courtesy Flickr Creative Commons user morrissey<\/p><\/div>\n
LAS VEGAS \u2013 The U.S. economy has hit its nadir and is now on the way up. That\u2019s according to Marcus & Millichap\u2019s 2011 national retail report, which was revealed at the International Council of Shopping Centers\u2019 global retail real estate convention, also known as RECon.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe first thing on my mind is what a difference a year makes, or even better, what a difference two years makes,\u201d Marcus & Millichap president & CEO John Kerin told a packed audience. \u201cWe haven\u2019t turned completely, but we\u2019re starting to see positive aspects.\u201d<\/p>\n
Thoses include retail sales that in mid-2010 turned positive and currently exceed the peak of spending in 2007, Marcus & Millichap managing director of research and advisory services Hessam Nadji said.<\/p>\n
\u201cSo the spending patterns of the U.S. have not only come back,\u201d he said, \u201cthey are above where they were before the downturn.\u201d<\/p>\n
Nadji waxed cautiously positive, characterizing the recovery as broad-based and noting that the last few months have seen the addition of more than half a million professional business jobs to the U.S. workforce. But that said, he warned, sentiment is fragile \u2013 as companies hear bad news, they are prepared to revert back to a wary stance.<\/p>\n
Among the major findings of the report: Approximately 2 million jobs will be created this year, led by business and professional services, healthcare, education, a cyclical rebound in technology and exports, with larger multi-national firms flourishing while local businesses continue to struggle.<\/p>\n
In terms of retail itself, Washington, D.C. kept the No. 1 spot in the index, while New York City moved ahead two places to No. 2. San Diego, Los Angeles and Orange County rounded out the top five. Other major regions include Austin, Boston and Seattle. <\/p>\n
The hardest-hit regions by the housing downturn \u2013 Tampa, Orlando, West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, Phoenix and Las Vegas \u2013 gained ground but still remained near the bottom of the retail index. <\/p>\n
Retail delinquencies are still elevated, with the highest levels seen amongst CMBS loans at nearly 8.6 percent. However, the report asserts that distressed loans are outpaced by workout volume, with the former at its lowest point in two years.<\/p>\n
Sector executives echoed Nadji\u2019s cautious optimism, asserting that they expect to see growth this year.<\/p>\n
\u201cGenerally, things are holding up pretty well,\u201d Federal Realty Trust CIO Jeffrey Berkes said. \u201cWe were able to, fortunately, increase and align our portfolio. \u2026And I think we\u2019ll do better in 2011. It wasn\u2019t easy, but probably the best analogy I\u2019ve heard with respect to what was going on in the leasing environment and occupancies and so forth back in 2008 and 2009 was that we had a bucket with a pretty big hole in the bottom. And that hole may have been the entire financial system crumbling down to more mundane things, and today there\u2019s still a hole in the bottom of the bucket, but it\u2019s much smaller. \u2026 There\u2019s certainly less water leaking out today.\u201d<\/p>\n
Robert Roscoe, a divisional vice president of asset development for Walgreen Co., characterized sales performance as strong, with an increase of nearly five percent in the last month. With transactions up, basket size up and the number of trips up, he said, things are looking good across the board.<\/p>\n
But the rising tide has yet to lift all boats.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe recovery is not equal across the sector,\u201d Safeway Inc. senior vice president of real estate and engineering Donald Wright said. \u201cThere are some haves and some have-nots. I think you\u2019ll see the haves continue to improve and strengthen.\u201d<\/p>\n
Nadji said he sees the state of the economy as a \u201ctug of war\u201d between a true recovery and the headwinds that continue to pervade headlines.<\/p>\n
\u201cHousing is headed for a double dip,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd there is really no end in sight when we will see the end of inventory in foreclosure.\u201d<\/p>\n
That said, he added, retail sales per square foot as well as online sales are looking more competitive than they have in years.<\/p>\n
\u201cRight now,\u201d he said, \u201cwe basically declare that we are at bottom.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
According to Marcus & Millichap’s 2011 national retail report, cautious optimism is the order of the day.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":936,"featured_media":1004029675,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21784,21808,21825,21783,21742],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1004029674","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-brokerage","category-featured","category-finance","category-investment","category-latest"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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