{"id":1004019816,"date":"2010-05-04T07:46:12","date_gmt":"2010-05-04T15:46:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004019816"},"modified":"2022-12-04T05:48:02","modified_gmt":"2022-12-04T13:48:02","slug":"dla-piper-summit-recession-was-panic-zell-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/dla-piper-summit-recession-was-panic-zell-says\/","title":{"rendered":"DLA Piper Summit: Recession was \u2018Panic\u2019, Zell Says"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>May 4, 2010<br \/>\nBy Allison Landa, News Editor<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"highslide\" href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2010\/05\/DLA-Piper1.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"1004019817\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/dla-piper-summit-recession-was-panic-zell-says\/dla-piper-2\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2010\/05\/DLA-Piper1.gif\" data-orig-size=\"178,72\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"DLA Piper\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2010\/05\/DLA-Piper1.gif?w=178\" src=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2010\/05\/DLA-Piper1-150x72.gif\" alt=\"\" title=\"DLA Piper\" width=\"150\" height=\"72\" class=\"alignright size-thumbnail wp-image-1004019817\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Eighteen months ago the  U.S. economy was in full-fledged panic. That\u2019s according to Sam Zell, who spoke at DLA Piper\u2019s Global Real Estate Summit 2010 on Tuesday. The chairman of Equity Group Investments spoke along with fellow panelist Michael Fascitelli, President and CEO of Vornado Realty Trust, at a panel titled \u201cWhere Have We Been and Where are We Going?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cClearly, the situation has dramatically changed from where it was 18 months ago,\u201d Zell said. \u201cI think that the word that nobody has used or not used enough is that we had a panic, just like we had a panic in 1873, in 1907 we had a panic. And the government\u2019s actions basically stabilized the situation. But it really was a financial system panic.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Fascitelli said no one would have predicted as vicious a decline as was witnessed in 2008 \u2013 or the rapid increase in the stock market that is being seen today. \u201cIt\u2019s a much more steep and condensed time frame than anyone would have expected on the way down and on the way up,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>Moderator Dee Anne Reiss, a Senior Consultant with Ernst &amp; Young\u2019s Real Estate Center, questioned the two speakers as to whether the U.S.\u2019s standing relative to the rest of the world is sustainable.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe have incredible debt right now, we have massive trade imbalance,\u201d she said. \u201cAre we looking at being the next Greece?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe certainly are acting like we would like to be,\u201d Zell replied to audience laughter. \u201cObviously I\u2019m not comparing the productivity capability of Greece with us, but we\u2019ve been riding a game for a long time and have had the extraordinary advantage of having the reserve currency \u2026 The world is challenging that currency.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Fascitelli rebutted that America is at a major advantage over Europe. However, \u201cwe have to pay for this just like real estate had a party and they had to pay for it.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In terms of real estate, both Zell and Fascitelli asserted that jobs will lead the way out of recession.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe had a whopping recession,\u201d Fascitelli said. \u201cIt wasn\u2019t led by commercial real estate this time, which was rare, and it wasn\u2019t led by overbuilding \u2026 So you\u2019re going to see job growth, and I think the question is where it will be, and how rapid it will be.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Zell believes that the current 9.7 percent unemployment rate is not likely to be dramatically different by the end of the year. \u201cSo maybe it\u2019ll be 8.5 percent or something like that,\u201d he said, asserting that even that amount is a serious bout of unemployment. \u201cI think it\u2019s going to take much more confidence-building before we see much more additions to employment.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He added that this was a demand recession in the real estate world, with demand plunging and vacancy rising. \u201cWe have had nothing built other than apartments since July 2007,\u201d he said, \u201cso effectively we haven\u2019t had any new supply \u2026 it\u2019s as much a question of supply as anything else.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He believes what he calls \u201cnon-obsolete forms of commercial real estate\u201d will fill up given that there is little new supply and the country is growing.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI don\u2019t know what will happen to all of the lifestyle centers and enclosed shopping centers for which there was no justification,\u201d he said. \u201cI don\u2019t know what\u2019s going to happen to all of those suburban glass-block office buildings which were all built for marginal tenants \u2026 who were very easily offshored and will (continue to be) offshored.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>However, he expressed optimism about the future of central business districts and in-close housing, which he predicts will fill up over the next 12-18 months. <\/p>\n<p>Fascitelli pointed out that the market has an approximately $700 million leveraging problem given that a flood of maturing loans are poised to hit the market: \u201cIt\u2019s not like shooting fish in a bowl right now,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n<p>Zell noted that between 2000 and 2007, 60 to 70 percent of all American real estate was sold and subsequently overleveraged. \u201cNobody\u2019s got any equity, and if nobody\u2019s got any equity, what\u2019s their incentive to sell?\u201d he asked. \u201cIt\u2019s going to get resolved transaction by transaction, one at a time. The only transactions that are relevant are the ones that are getting done.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Eighteen months ago the  U.S. economy was in full-fledged panic. That\u2019s according to Sam Zell, who spoke at DLA Piper\u2019s Global Real Estate Summit 2010 on Tuesday. The chairman of Equity Group Investments spoke along with fellow panelist Michael Fascitelli, President and CEO of Vornado Realty Trust, at a panel titled \u201cWhere Have We Been and Where are We Going?\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":936,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21825,21742],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1004019816","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-finance","category-latest"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>DLA Piper Summit: Recession was \u2018Panic\u2019, Zell Says - Commercial Property Executive<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/dla-piper-summit-recession-was-panic-zell-says\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"DLA Piper Summit: Recession was \u2018Panic\u2019, Zell Says\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Eighteen months ago the U.S. economy was in full-fledged panic. That\u2019s according to Sam Zell, who spoke at DLA Piper\u2019s Global Real Estate Summit 2010 on Tuesday. 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That\u2019s according to Sam Zell, who spoke at DLA Piper\u2019s Global Real Estate Summit 2010 on Tuesday. 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