{"id":1004018568,"date":"2010-03-25T07:27:14","date_gmt":"2010-03-25T15:27:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004018568"},"modified":"2022-11-26T04:41:36","modified_gmt":"2022-11-26T12:41:36","slug":"long-wait-for-growth-may-be-in-store-linneman-tells-nai-global-forum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/long-wait-for-growth-may-be-in-store-linneman-tells-nai-global-forum\/","title":{"rendered":"Long Wait for Growth May Be in Store, Linneman Tells NAI Global Forum"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>March 25, 2010<br \/>\nBy Paul Rosta, Senior Editor<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_1004018569\" style=\"width: 160px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><a class=\"highslide\" href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2010\/03\/morrissey1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1004018569\" data-attachment-id=\"1004018569\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/long-wait-for-growth-may-be-in-store-linneman-tells-nai-global-forum\/morrissey-2\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2010\/03\/morrissey1.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"500,375\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"morrissey\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Courtesy Flickr Creative Commons user morrissey&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2010\/03\/morrissey1.jpg?w=500\" src=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2010\/03\/morrissey1.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"morrissey\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-1004018569\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-1004018569\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Courtesy Flickr Creative Commons user morrissey<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Prospects for the U.S. economy, public policy and commercial real estate industry drew a mixture of skepticism and cautious optimism in New York City this week at NAI Global\u2019s annual market outlook.  <\/p>\n<p>Even as the picture brightens somewhat, Peter Linneman, NAI Global\u2019s chief economist and a professor at the University of Pennsylvania\u2019s Wharton School of Business, struck a note of caution. \u201cWe\u2019re going to have a very strong economic recovery over the coming three years to mediocrity,\u201d Linneman predicted. <\/p>\n<p>Corporate profits have now grown for five consecutive quarters, a trend that bodes well for job creation; still, Linneman reminded the audience of several hundred real estate professionals that the job market has a steep mountain to climb. Today\u2019s economy is a staggering 10 million jobs short of the 2008 total.  Judging by historical patterns, the job shortfall would translate into a five and a half year wait to restore real estate rents and occupancy to early 2008 levels, Linneman pointed out. <\/p>\n<p>However, his analysis also left the door open for faster progress on the employment front. A job market that recovered at twice the usual pace would return the market to pre-recession levels as early as 2013. Such an outcome is possible, he argued, especially since the deepest valleys tend to precede the fastest recoveries in the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n<p>Speaking the day President Obama signed the health care bill into law, Linneman cited the long uncertainty over the future of the nation\u2019s health care as a major culprit in the recession. For nearly two years, a sector that represents nearly one-fifth of the economy was unsure whether it would soon be subject to wage and price controls. That severely hampered economic growth across the board and took a toll on commercial real estate. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cYou can\u2019t freeze 19 percent of the nation\u2019s economy and expect growth,\u201d Linneman explained. \u201cYou can\u2019t freeze 19 percent of the nation\u2019s economy and expect innovation.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>Health care will lead the recovery, but the comeback will be slow; at first, the industry will have to restore staffing to pre-recession levels before adding new positions. <\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the recovery faces other hazards, such as the inflationary threat created by the fiscal policies of both the Obama and George W. Bush administrations, Linneman contended. <\/p>\n<p>In an interview after the presentation, NAI Global CEO Jeff Finn cited growing indications that the worst of the recession is likely over. \u201cThe second half of 2009 really began to pick up\u2014again from a very low low,\u201d Finn told <em>CPE<\/em>. Although commercial real estate is still experiencing problematic rent and vacancy trends, investment and leasing opportunities exist in all property sectors, he explained. The short-term leasing cycle associated with apartment properties makes the multifamily cycle particularly attractive. Finn added.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prospects for the U.S. economy, public policy and commercial real estate industry drew a mixture of skepticism and cautious optimism in New York City this week at NAI Global\u2019s annual market outlook.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":445,"featured_media":1004018569,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21825,21742],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1004018568","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance","category-latest"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Long Wait for Growth May Be in Store, Linneman Tells NAI Global Forum - Commercial Property Executive<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/long-wait-for-growth-may-be-in-store-linneman-tells-nai-global-forum\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Long Wait for Growth May Be in Store, Linneman Tells NAI Global Forum\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Prospects for the U.S. economy, public policy and commercial real estate industry drew a mixture of skepticism and cautious optimism in New York City this week at NAI Global\u2019s annual market outlook.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/long-wait-for-growth-may-be-in-store-linneman-tells-nai-global-forum\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Commercial Property Executive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CPExecutive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2010-03-25T15:27:14+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-11-26T12:41:36+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2010\/03\/morrissey1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"500\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"375\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Paul Rosta\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/long-wait-for-growth-may-be-in-store-linneman-tells-nai-global-forum\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/long-wait-for-growth-may-be-in-store-linneman-tells-nai-global-forum\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Paul Rosta\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/ed97e8245f278ce01a7b951f706152af\"},\"headline\":\"Long Wait for Growth May Be in Store, Linneman Tells NAI Global Forum\",\"datePublished\":\"2010-03-25T15:27:14+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-11-26T12:41:36+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/long-wait-for-growth-may-be-in-store-linneman-tells-nai-global-forum\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":493,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/long-wait-for-growth-may-be-in-store-linneman-tells-nai-global-forum\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/46\\\/2010\\\/03\\\/morrissey1.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Finance\",\"News\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/long-wait-for-growth-may-be-in-store-linneman-tells-nai-global-forum\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/long-wait-for-growth-may-be-in-store-linneman-tells-nai-global-forum\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/long-wait-for-growth-may-be-in-store-linneman-tells-nai-global-forum\\\/\",\"name\":\"Long Wait for Growth May Be in Store, Linneman Tells NAI Global Forum - 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