{"id":1004017593,"date":"2010-02-04T13:12:49","date_gmt":"2010-02-04T21:12:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004017593"},"modified":"2022-12-07T17:36:00","modified_gmt":"2022-12-08T01:36:00","slug":"special-report-mba-makes-predictions-for-economy-interest-rates-unemployment-commercial-real-estate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/special-report-mba-makes-predictions-for-economy-interest-rates-unemployment-commercial-real-estate\/","title":{"rendered":"SPECIAL REPORT: MBA Makes Predictions for Economy, Interest Rates, Unemployment, Commercial Real Estate"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>February 4, 2010<br \/>\nBy Keat Foong, Contributing Editor<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_1004017595\" style=\"width: 160px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><a class=\"highslide\" href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2010\/02\/2089495171_fd2aeb3c6f.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1004017595\" data-attachment-id=\"1004017595\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/special-report-mba-makes-predictions-for-economy-interest-rates-unemployment-commercial-real-estate\/2089495171_fd2aeb3c6f\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2010\/02\/2089495171_fd2aeb3c6f.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"500,333\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"2089495171_fd2aeb3c6f\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Courtesy Flickr Creative Commons user heathbrandon.&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2010\/02\/2089495171_fd2aeb3c6f.jpg?w=500\" src=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2010\/02\/2089495171_fd2aeb3c6f.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"2089495171_fd2aeb3c6f\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-1004017595\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-1004017595\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Courtesy Flickr Creative Commons user heathbrandon.<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Las Vegas&#8211;Commercial real estate market conditions are not likely to ever return to levels last seen at the peak of the market in 2007, according to Jay Brinkmann, chief economist and senior vice president, research and economist, of the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).<\/p>\n<p>Brinkmann spoke at a general session at MBA\u2019s Commercial Real Estate Finance\/Multifamily Housing Convention and Expo held this week in Las Vegas.<\/p>\n<p>The mid-point of the last decade was \u201canything but normal,\u201d said Brinkmann. He said the U.S. economy at that time was an economy that was \u201cartificially stimulated.\u201d For example, more than $250 billion per quarter was withdrawn as equity from homes by consumers. \u201cWe will not get back to that point,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n<p>Brinkmann was joined in the forecast presentation by Jamie Woodwell, vice president, commercial\/multifamily research at MBA. <\/p>\n<p>The MBA predicts real GDP growth to be 2.7 percent in the first quarter, 2.3 percent in the second quarter, 2.7 percent in the third quarter and 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter. Nevertheless, unemployment\u2014an important indicator for commercial real estate and the multifamily sector &#8212; will be slow to recover in this business cycle notwithstanding economic growth.<\/p>\n<p>The good news on the employment front is that new claims for unemployment insurance has been declining for most of 2009, said Brinkmann. He expects that trend to continue through 2010. By the end of this year, the unemployment claims level will likely be at pre-recession levels, Brinkmann said.<\/p>\n<p>The falling unemployment insurance claims rate means that consumers who have jobs now will be more confident that they will not lose them and will be more willing to spend, he said. <\/p>\n<p>The bad news, however, is that the percentage of those who have been unemployed for more than six months has hit a record 40 percent&#8211;the highest level ever seen since records were kept in 1951. In past recessions, the highest percentage of long-term unemployed was only 25 percent.<\/p>\n<p>Unemployment now will be always longer to recover than economic development, said Brinkmann. Given that 2.7 million jobs have been lost since the trough of this recession, it is likely to take nine quarters  for that level to be replenished, he said. <\/p>\n<p>Brinkmann forecast that it is \u201chighly unlikely\u201d the Federal Reserve will increase the Federal Funds rate before December and early 2011\u2014unless it needs to jump in to defend the dollar. Otherwise, there is no evidence of inflation and  there is still a flight to quality among investors.<\/p>\n<p><em>Keat Foong is also executive editor of Multi-Housing News.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Commercial real estate market conditions are not likely to ever return to levels last seen at the peak of the market in 2007, according to Jay Brinkmann, chief economist and senior vice president, research and economist, of the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":936,"featured_media":1004017595,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21825,21742],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1004017593","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance","category-latest"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - 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