The UCLA Anderson forecast has released a statement that claims that the United States economy is not technically in a recession. Citing data from the second quarter of 2008 that showed the gross domestic product had increased by 3.3 percent, the forecast states that the nation is not in a recession by the definition set forth by the National Bureau of Economic Research, but is quick to realize that the economy is \u201cstalled.\u201d The forecast predicts that third quarter GDP growth will be 1 percent in the third quarter followed by a fourth quarter GDP growth of essentially zero. The report\u2019s author, David Shulman, predicted the economy\u2019s growth for several quarters will be below trend as housing prices have yet to bottom out and the real estate market continues to affect the financial sector significantly. Another factor affecting the report\u2019s economic projections are the high gas prices. The report cautions of the combination of high energy prices along with minor wage growth have significantly affected consumers\u2019 purchasing power. The report is cautiously optimistic that the worst of the inflation risks has passed, yet warns that political resistance in the areas of trade and tax policy has the potential to negatively impact the economy. Shulman sees the current banking crisis as a significant factor on the slowing economic growth. \u201cThe Fed is in up to its eyeballs with the major Wall Street investment banks and it will be quite awhile before monetary policy will no longer be haunted by the risk of a systemic failure\u201d he writes in the report. The Forecast\u2019s director, Edward Leamer, also weighed in with an accompanying essay wherein he dealt with the issue of recession. \u201cAt any moment we could fall into the recession abyss. A future revision in the existing data could reveal that a recession has occurred. We need to recognize that if this doesn\u2019t qualify as a recession, it surely isn\u2019t normal growth.\u201d The UCLA Anderson Forecast is a project of the UCLA Anderson School of Management which provides forecasts for the economies of the United States and California. The report carries significant weight, as it is an independent analysis lacking bias, which distinguishes the report from those of corporations. The report is credited as being the first economic forecast to declare the recession that occurred in 2001.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The UCLA Anderson forecast has released a statement that claims that the United States economy is not technically in a recession. Citing data from the second quarter of 2008 that showed the gross domestic product had increased by 3.3 percent, the forecast states that the nation is not in a recession by the definition set…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1314,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[37301],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1003854897","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n