Browse Tag: commercial real estate

Cincinnati Warehouse Property in 2017

English: Cincinatti, OH.

Earlier this year, we looked at Cincinnati’s new Amazon air hub. One quarter on from that Cincinnati warehouse announcement, what is the wider economic picture for logistics and warehouse property in “Blue Chip City”?

According to Xceligent’s 1st Quarter Industrial Market Report for Cincinnati, unemployment fell to 5% in January of this year. Coming along for the ride on the wave of economic good news are two markets: Cincy’s industrial and office property markets. When people go to work, you generally have to put them somewhere, and that’s where Cincinnati’s expanding options in industrial and office property come in.

Florence/Richwood Submarket Hot

Of the largest positive industrial transactions in town 1Q2017, the metro’s southern sections of Florence and Richwood claimed the lion’s share of square footage. Warehouse projects in the submarket included over 670KSF of space sold to grocery giant Kroger.That deal came with a sale price of over $33 million. Other large Florence transactions 440KSF leased to shipper UPS and 275KSF of leased space at 10600 Toebben Drive.

Cincinnati Warehouse Leasing Trends: On The Uptick

Higher transactions and lowered vacancy is the trend in the Cincinnati warehouse market.  From the latest Xceligent Cincinnati Industrial Market Report (1Q2017):

Cincinnati warehouse leasing trends 1Q2017

Check out Cincinnati’s industrial, office and multifamily properties for sale or lease

Want a wide and fast analysis of Cincinnati’s commercial real estate markets?

Start by dropping us a line to request free copies of Xceligent’s 1Q2017 Market reports in Industrial, Office and Retail property. 

Next, browse the market live: click onto these live queries of listed properties:

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REIT Risk: Bank Borrowing Rising

English: US Bank tower in Denver, Colorado. Are banks a source of REIT risk?

The real estate investment trust (REIT) is an investment vehicle with a particular sensitivity to borrowed capital. REIT risk tied to capital source is heightened because the legal structure of a REIT is centered on distributing the vast majority of its earnings to shareholders.  This means the REIT is prevented from holding back significant capital reserves, which in turn means it must borrow to finance its acquisitions and operations.  That borrowing takes the form of credit from bondholders and from banks.

Taken by itself, the REIT structure’s dependency on external capital need not present untoward risk to the REIT, but the borrowing side needs balance to protect the REIT from overexposure to a certain type of borrowing.  Between the two tradition avenues, commercial banks and bond issuance, US REITs are increasingly exposed to bank credit.

According to a new REIT risk report by investment ratings agency Fitch, US REITs have doubled their exposure to bank borrowing over the past seven years. Fitch put the borrowing from commercial banks at 8.5% of total REIT debt in 2010. That figure is now 16.5% as of year-end 2016.

Access to multiple forms of capital is a characteristic of investment-grade REITs, and a weakening in the unsecured bond markets would challenge REITs to tap additional unsecured bank borrowing. Fitch has viewed negatively companies with less mature capital structures that rely on fewer sources of funding. The inability of issuers to obtain cost-effective unsecured funding via the bond or bank market could cause rating downgrades or negative outlook changes.

Two Environmental Factors: Low Interest, High Profile

The changes come as REITs have literally come into their own as an equity investment — 2016 was the year that REITs received their own sector classification from Standard & Poor, taking them out of the wider category of “finance” and into a spotlight of their own.  That move boosted REIT stocks in the investing public’s eye at the same time that very low interest rates have prodded REITs seeking capital toward corporate bond issuance and the risk premiums that go with these bonds.

Both factors have emphasized the viability of REITs as an investment class, but the rise in one kind of vital borrowing that will be sensitive to Federal Reserve interest rate moves, which can almost go nowhere but up — is seen as a signal by Fitch that balance in borrowing sources is something REITs need more of as a class.

(Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Trump Hotel Lease In DC Not Illegal

In a letter delivered to The Trump Organization yesterday, a US government agency acting as landlord to the President’s luxury hotel in Washington DC has determined the President’s hotel is in compliance with its lease.

The GSA lease, discussed earlier here at CRE Blog, has a 60-year term on the renovated former US Post Office Pavilion property that the President, while in real-estate developer mode, converted to the luxury Trump International Hotel D.C.

The GSA, whose purpose is to manage half a trillion dollars worth of federal property in a portfolio of over 8,300 owned and leased buildings, sent the letter in response to unique questions arising from the non-divestment of President Trump from his portfolio of properties.  GSA is the owner of the building in question and was called upon to review the structure of the lease for compliance.

The letter is fascinating in that it provides a rare view into an operating structure of a Trump property, plus a snapshot of some of the Trump / Trump family’s real estate empire’s various legal structures.  It also references that the hotel operations group undertook changes to Section II of its internal operating agreement in order, one assumes, to achieve compliance.

Getting Paid? No, says GSA.

CBS Marketwatch reports that the changes and structure as expressed in the letter makes it so that distributions sourced from the hotel will not make it to the pocket of the President; such funds instead will remain within the operating LLC rather than going to his ownership vehicle.

Download the entire GSA letter here — and take a long look at what full compliance means in these unprecedented times.

Self Storage Investing On Rebound In 2017

Photo of self-storage facility hallway

After reading IRR’s latest report on the national self-storage property marketplace, I was inspired to take a closer look at this dynamic sub-sector. A wealth of commentary and metrics, the 2017 National Viewpoint National Self-Storage Report lifts the veil on this specialty sub-sector’s comeback from the 2008 recession and suggests where the market is headed based on past performance.

The fundamentals of the market are solid, says report author Steven J. Johnson, MAI, Senior Managing Director at IRR-Metro L.A.  Coming off of a hot year in 2016, the national marketplace in self-storage saw two huge portfolio deals completing, totaling over $3 billion alone. This in a wider market that sports some interesting drivers and leading indicators:

Only 15% of self-storage held by REITs

Quoting the report as calling the national market “fragmented” and dominated by small groups or mom-and-pop operations, it surprised me to see that institutional investors have thus far left 85% of the self-storage pie on the table. From where I’m sitting, that suggests that, all things being equal, acquisition volume in is likely to rise in 2017. Adding to the heat: cap rates on average are landing between 6 and 6.25% across all class types.

Customer life events drive the self-storage business

Classic drivers of the self-storage industry include marriages and divorces.  There were approximately 2.2 million marriages and 800K+ divorces in the US in 2016.  This shows basically flat to declining national trends, both trailing downward slightly, which might appear to go against the case for market growth, but remember that buried in these numbers are cohabitation events displacing some marriages.  Other important life events include births,

See for yourself: browse Self Storage national property listings right now at CommercialSearch.com

Check out the live national picture in self-storage property right now —  click over to this query of  self-storage properties for sale at CommercialSearch.com. The current listings count reads nearly 250 properties, located all across the US in primary, secondary and tertiary markets. The range of locations and classes tell the tale: this is an investment property class that has hung out its shingle and is doing business.

(Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Milwaukee Industrial Real Estate Market

Map of the Milwaukee area including the Milwaukee industrial market

 

The Milwaukee industrial market is a healthy one, offering midwestern location, pre-recession market characteristics and a high level of cooperation among commercial real estate practitioners.  In Brew-town, brokers share data easily and in doing so, drive transaction counts across the whole market. Shared data means more options for making client needs fit inventories.  A quick sampling of recent listings and deals includes:

What’s behind Milwaukee’s industrial market? We ask veteran broker Brian Parrish

Specialist in the sale and lease of industrial property in Milwaukee, Brian Parrish has been building expertise in the market for fifteen years. Currently President and CEO of PARADIGM Real Estate, Brian took a few minutes to share his expert perspective on what makes this market tick.

Xceligent data shows combined vacancy rates for the industrial market in Milwaukee have held at 4.2% from 1Q 2016 to 4Q2016. Does what you're seeing 'on the street' match with this finding?
Brian: Yes, we are back to pre-recession levels. The only reason it isn’t lower is that some new construction has come onto the market and is in the process of being absorbed.  It is common to hear brokers and buyers lamenting about lack of inventory, so to the street it may feel like even less is available. Quite a bit of the vacancy at this point constitutes larger and older buildings that require some repurposing. Nonetheless, this is still an attractive proposition compared to the increasing costs of new construction.

Another marketplace factor is that bank financing is readily available for industrial users (buyers). Much of the vacant space tends to be in properties for lease, where a sale is not possible.  As interest rates rise and users become more frustrated with inventory, the pendulum should swing towards leasing again.

Talk a little about your most recent transaction. How long was it in the pipeline?
Brian: PARADIGM recently represented General Capital in the purchase of a 135,000sf former Sam’s Club on 76th Street near Good Hope Road in Milwaukee. The deal took about 8 months from beginning to close, and involved rezoning the property from retail to industrial. The building has been leased on a long term basis to Sellars Absorbent Materials. It is a great example of how a vacant building can be repurposed from one economic driver to another, continuing to provide employment to the local community.
What do you think the big story in 2017 will be in Milwaukee industrial property?
Brian: Milwaukee — particularly Downtown — is truly experiencing a renaissance. Every day a new construction project gets announced, so it is hard to contemplate a story that would draw more buzz than the noteworthy projects we already have in town.  With that said, I think we will see some more speculative development in the north and the west submarkets of southeastern Wisconsin where such has lacked over the last several years.

Get the latest Milwaukee industrial market numbers from Xceligent

Click here to request a free copy of Xceligent’s latest Market Report for the Milwaukee industrial market.

 

Stadium Finance: Wins On The Field Can Mean Wins For Investors

Panorama of Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles (tak...
Panorama of Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles  (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

As Spring Training for the 2017 Major League Baseball season gets underway, our attention turns to stadium finance, a strange intersection of finance, athletics and real estate that leverages competition on-field and off.

Stadium development in the US is often subsidized by the public, meaning development risks are often shared by taxpayers in various ways, from tangible environmental impacts (parking availability, foot traffic) to the borrowing of already-strapped municipalities aiming to improve the business fitness of the areas surrounding the stadium.

That borrowing – typically performed by issuing municipal bonds – is rated by bond ratings agencies, allowing comparisons to be made in a bond market matching lenders and borrowers.  But which sport throws off the most data to use for investment comparisons?  It’s baseball.

Baseball Is The Handiest Test Case

Of the major sports, only Major League Baseball puts the “business fitness” argument behind stadium development to its greatest utilization test. Unlike football, basketball or hockey, (major league) baseball hosts a whopping 81 home games a season. From April to September, baseball stadium utilization when the team is in town is a nearly-every-day-of-the-week affair, whereas other sports make their home appearances only a handful of days of a season-week – or only one day, as in football.

It’s in part because of this high utilization that the finances of stadium development can be deeply affected by the performance of the team on the field.  In an amazing post at Commercial Observer by Terrence Cullen, exactly how on-field performance can affect financial performance underwriting a development is shown by a long look at the New York Mets and Citi Field. From “How Batting Averages Can Affect A Stadium’s Bond Rating”:

“There are two ways to argue for a new stadium,” he said. “One is, ‘Our team sucks, we need a new stadium so we can be good again.’ Which usually doesn’t work very well, because if your team sucks, nobody cares. Or, ‘Our team is great. If you don’t give us a new stadium, you’ll never see this again.’”

The latter option, he added, is often the better route. “This is very, very common,” he said. “If you’re trying to get a new stadium you compete that one year.”

[…]

Gerstner pointed to the instance in which the San Diego Padres leveraged its All-Star roster to secure financing in the late-1990s to build what is today Petco Park. The Padres boosted their roster for the 1998 season, making it all the way to the World Series that October (the Yankees swept the team). The following month, voters went to the polls to determine whether the team could build the stadium. The city invested $300 million into the project, while the Padres invested $115 million, according to news organization Voice of San Diego.  

Following the approval, however, the Padres traded away key players and lost others to free agency, Gerstner noted. The team finished fourth in its division with a 74-88 record.

Read the entire post at Commercial Observer here. And don’t forget to Play Ball!

 

Downtown Cleveland’s Key Center Sells For $268M: What’s The Market Like?

Key Tower in downtown Cleveland, Ohio
Key Tower in downtown Cleveland, Ohio (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The cornerstone of Cleveland’s skyline has sold this week for $268M to a local owner.  What does it mean for the local office market?

The Key Center, a 1.3M SF office tower sporting 57 stories and Class A status has been sold by national office REIT Columbia Property Trust to a Cleveland-based multifamily property and development firm. Built in 1991, the Key Center anchors a deal that includes a nearly 1,000-space parking garage as well as a ten-story bank building.

The anchor tenant in the tower is a regional banking power. KeyCorp, a holding company that owns the 18th largest bank in the US, lends a significant chunk to the tower’s 95% occupancy at sale time. The new owner, Ohio’s Millennia Companies – a group of real estate operations and development firms – intends to move operations into the tower, further bolstering the Cleveland CBD strong net absorption numbers, reported in Xceligent’s 4Q2016  Cleveland Market Report as the city’s leading absorption submarket with over 75KSF absorbed.

A Peek Around The Neighborhood

The deal takes place against Cleveland’s backdrop of declining office vacancy and modest levels of new construction. From Xceligent’s most recent Market Report:

  • During the 4Q 2016 the Cleveland office market has absorbed 104,105 square feet (sf) of space.
  • At 12.0% the regional vacancy rate has continued to decline, showing improvements from the 4Q 2015 at 13.1%.
  • The Cleveland CBD submarket observed the greatest positive net absorption totaling 75,222 sf during the 4Q 2016.
  • The Cleveland Office development pipeline had 67,000 sf under construction during the fourth quarter

Cleveland, In Fact, Rocks

If nothing else, the Key Center deal is a strong show of local commercial confidence in the face of a city’s commercial history that has suffered from capital flight, at times resulting in “rust belt” perception. It’s the duty of CRE professionals to look past such cliches, however. Industry players who might shadow the principals in this deal — such as financial support services or real estate service companies who have or seek profiles in the Midwest — can indulge their interest in low-barrier office markets such as Cleveland’s with a quick and easy look at Cleveland CBD’s comparable and nearby office properties.  To view a live query at CommercialSearch of office properties listed for lease or sale in the shadow of the Key Center,  click here.

Get Xceligent’s 4Q Cleveland Office Market Report

To get your own copy of Xceligent’s latest (4Q2016) Market Report on the Cleveland Office Market, click here to drop us a note today.

New Amazon Air Hub and the Cincinnati Warehouse Market

Amazon’s latest step in its apparent plan to take over its own supply chain is an announced $1.5B cargo hub outside of Cincinnati. The hub, slated to be placed in Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky Airport (CVG) is expected to enable the company to fly its Amazon Prime cargo jet fleet into and out of a healthy property market blessed with what Amazon’s SVP of Worldwide Operations Dave Clark called “a large, skilled workforce, centralized location with great connectivity to our nearby fulfillment locations and an excellent quality of living for employees.”

Construction of the facility is sure to have some follow-on effects as vendors and customers consider the Airport submarket’s nearly 31 million sf of inventory.  A recent arrival of new space allows plenty of options, boosting total vacant space to 1.4 million. Here’s a quick look at Queen City’s market as published this week in Xceligent’s 4Q2016 Cincinnati Industrial Market Report:

  • During 4Q 2016 the industrial market has absorbed just over 538,504 square feet (sf), with a year to date absorption of just over 5.2M sf.
  • As a result of just over 4.6 million sf of newly delivered space, industrial vacancy has risen from 3.7% in 2Q 2016 to 4.3%.
  • The Tri-County submarket has posted the highest positive net absorption for two consecutive quarters, closing 4Q 2016 with just over 676,000 sf. This positive movement was offset by the Airport submarket which posted a negative net total of 750,000 sf.
  • The weighted average asking rent has increased year over year from $3.56 per square foot (psf) to $3.96 psf. This increase can be attributed to an increased demand with limited warehouse availability.

Industrial Property Search: CVG Airport Cincinnati

Click here to take a look at live property data centered on CVG Airport/Covington at CommercialSearch.com.

Taking To The Skies

The location choice of CVG Airport by Amazon has the company striking while the iron is hot; the airport itself has been the beneficiary of ready warehouse inventory nearby. Its growth in freight handling has been in the double digits year-over-year for the last five years. If the extra freight loads Amazon represents seems a good fit for an airport with a record of expanding capacity in a sustained push, that may be part of the company’s interest in taking to the air: their designs for floating warehouses and plans for drone delivery are far more likely to arrive than it might at first seem. If there’s one thing Amazon does, it’s deliver.

If Trump Targets Dodd-Frank, What Are the Commercial Real Estate Impacts?

While we find ourselves in the early, frenetic days of the Trump administration, it’s far from clear exactly what to expect from a White House that has single-mindedly pursued its own private list of policies without much concern for fallout or for some campaign promises. In what appears to be a intentional pattern of confusion, some of the President’s campaign promises have been confusingly dropped by the Oval Office, only to picked back up within hours. The very latest example of this pattern over the past 24 hours being his pledge to negotiate with the pharma industry to achieve lower drug prices.  This was a promise apparently dropped only to be picked back up hours later the same day.

So when the President announced yesterday that he intended to “do a big number” on the Wall Street reform package called Dodd-Frank, we got a warning something might (or might not) happen to key regulations on risk retention that deeply affect the commercial real estate industry.

Regulation, Risk and Reminders

President Trump severely criticized the Dodd-Frank law yesterday, calling it a “disaster” and promising to “do a big number” on the law soon. If the President does actually follow through with gutting Dodd-Frank, what could change for commercial real estate?  Whatever changes that stick will affect at least one of these areas:

  • The Credit Risk Retention Rule – Forces issuers of bonds comprised of performing commercial real estate properties to hold a percentage of the offering.  Affects CMBS marketplace significantly, as written about here.
  • Credit Rating Agency Reform – Rules that prevent the complicity of risk ratings agencies (Moody’s, Fitch, S&P) in mislabeling bond offerings to obscure systemic risk.  Affects CMBS and REIT share markets as well as the wider debt market transparency.
  • Legislative proposals to wind down the Government Sponsored Entities such as Freddie Mac that originate a great deal of capital for apartment building projects
  • The Volker Rule – Prevents banks from engaging in trading in certain kinds of investments. Affects: proprietary trading, disallows banks from owning or investing in hedge funds or private equity funds. If struck down, may increase availability of capital from banks to exotic or alternative financing vehicles serving the CRE industry.

Unclear (Still)

Guessing at impact is tough, because Dodd-Frank rules are a moving target — rules are still being designed and implemented with a time schedule that reaches into 2019 and beyond.  While the President signed an executive order this week compelling the elimination of two regulations for every one invoked, a move that tends to support speculation that the President sees regulations as intrinsically bad things, nobody should claim to know exactly what’s on the Donald’s mind before a) he announces it himself  and b) we wait a little bit for the dust to settle.

New FASB Standards Likely To Shorten Lease Terms

For some entities’ fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2018, we can expect to see the appearance of new property lease standards as enforced by the Financial Accounting Standards Board. Commercial real estate industry lease agreements will be subject to a new accounting standard intended to force the recognition of leases that run longer than twelve months as assets or liabilities on the books.

That’s not to say the new standards exempt leases that run shorter than one year — lessees may choose to not record an asset or liability for a lease a) whose term runs less than twelve months and b) that includes no purchase option that the lessee is reasonably likely to activate.

Minimizing the impact

The landlord side of the negotiation table is likely to be faced with pressure to reduce the lease term so as to retain the flexibility afforded by lease accounting under the old standards.  Prior to the new standards, leases were not commonly characterized as assets or liabilities and as such could be arranged relative to an owner’s bottom line with much more latitude than is offered today.

A major segment of the property leasing world impacted by the standards is tenants at the crossroads considering wether to rent or buy.  As Howard Barash of CohnReznick writes in National Real Estate Investor:

Preparing for, and complying with, the new leasing standard is not all bad news. In fact, smart businesses should treat the implementation of the new standard as an opportunity to re-evaluate, and then optimize, their leasing strategies. Companies should closely examine their current leasing contracts. They should also revisit their lease vs. buy decision criteria in light of the standard to determine which option makes the most sense for their business.

The implementation deadline for the new FASB lease standard is approaching and will be here before we know it. It will impact most businesses well beyond an accounting exercise. As such, now is the time for your business to examine its leasing process and gain input from your key business leaders.